Burden of Ovarian Cancer in China Attributable to Asbestos Exposure During 1990-2021 and the Projections Through 2050

Our plain-English summary of Burden of Ovarian Cancer in China Attributable to Asbestos Exposure During 1990-2021 and the Projections Through 2050, by D. Jin, L. Hua, Q. Huang, et al (International Journal of Women's Health, 2026).

The study

• Authors: D. Jin, L. Hua, Q. Huang, R. Lei, C. Xu, X. Chen, P. Chen, T. Chen
• Journal: International Journal of Women's Health
• Published: 2026;18:582043
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

Objective: Ovarian cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women globally. Occupational asbestos exposure is a well-established risk factor. This study aimed to evaluate and project the burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China through 2050.

Methods: Data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ovarian cancer due to asbestos exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. Temporal trends in age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to disentangle the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Future disease burden through 2050 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: In 2021, asbestos-related ovarian cancer resulted in 357 deaths and 7,621 DALYs in China, accounting for 1.43% and 1.02% of the total ovarian cancer burden, respectively. The burden was highest among individuals aged 70-74 years. Joinpoint analysis identified peaks in the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates around 2011. The age-period-cohort model revealed that rates increased with age. Projections indicate that by 2050, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates will reach 0.0266 and 0.735 per 100,000, while the deaths and DALYs show an upward trend.

Conclusion: The burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China has increased substantially and is projected to continue rising through 2050. These findings underscore the imperative for a complete ban on asbestos production and consumption in China.

© 2026 Jin et al.

In plain English

This study used Global Burden of Disease 2021 estimates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, a measure of healthy life lost) from ovarian cancer attributed to occupational asbestos exposure in China, 1990–2021, projected to 2050. Estimated deaths rose from 124 (95% confidence interval 47–241) in 1990 to 357 (124–682) in 2021, and DALYs from 2,919 (1,055–5,882) to 7,621 (2,603–14,704). The age-standardized death rate was 0.032 per 100,000 in both years (intervals 0.012–0.060 and 0.011–0.061). The authors described age-standardized rates as overall stable, with a peak in 2011. In 2021, asbestos accounted for an estimated 1.43% (interval 0.55–2.56%) of ovarian cancer deaths and 1.02% (interval 0.38–1.84%) of DALYs. Numbers peaked at ages 70 to 74 in 2021. Projections reached about 1,206 deaths and 76,966 DALYs in 2050, with very large uncertainty. A simulation gave a 56.50% probability that 2050 DALYs would exceed the 2021 level. The authors noted possible misclassification between peritoneal mesothelioma and ovarian cancer, and said 2050 projections may be overestimated. They concluded a complete ban on chrysotile asbestos in China is urgently needed.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates. Trends were analyzed with Joinpoint regression and an age-period-cohort analysis, and projections to 2050 used a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
• Who was studied: Ovarian cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2021, in 17 age groups from 20–24 to 95+ years, with projections for 2022–2050
• Exposure: Occupational exposure to asbestos, as defined as a risk factor in the GBD 2021 database. Fiber types and doses were not analyzed.
• Main results:
  • In China, estimated asbestos-attributable ovarian cancer deaths rose from 124 (95% CI 47–241) in 1990 to 357 (95% CI 124–682) in 2021. DALYs rose from 2,919 (95% CI 1,055–5,882) to 7,621 (95% CI 2,603–14,704).
  • The age-standardized mortality rate was 0.032 per 100,000 in both 1990 (95% CI 0.012–0.060) and 2021 (95% CI 0.011–0.061, per Table 1). The age-standardized DALY rate went from 0.685 to 0.669 per 100,000.
  • Over 1990–2021, the average annual percentage change was 0.025 (95% CI −0.227 to 0.284) for the age-standardized mortality rate. For the age-standardized DALY rate it was −0.074 (95% CI −0.276 to 0.137).
  • The age-standardized mortality rate peaked in 2011 and was lowest in 2015.
  • In 2021, the all-age fraction of ovarian cancer deaths attributable to asbestos was 1.43% (95% CI 0.55–2.56). The fraction of DALYs was 1.02% (95% CI 0.38–1.84).
  • The highest absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs in 2021 were in the 70–74-year age group.
  • In two-factor models, rates increased with age within each birth cohort.
  • Projected numbers for 2050 were approximately 1,206 deaths (SD = 3,162) and 76,966 DALYs (SD = 556,045).
  • A Monte Carlo simulation gave a 56.50% probability that DALYs in 2050 will exceed the 2021 baseline.
  • The age-standardized mortality rate was projected to decline slightly, from 0.0316 (SD = 0.0016) to 0.0266 (SD = 0.0263) per 100,000.
  • The age-standardized DALY rate was projected to rise from 0.679 (SD = 0.022) to 0.735 (SD = 1.271) per 100,000.
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that their findings underscore the urgent need for a complete ban on chrysotile asbestos in China.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • Relying on GBD estimates may bias the results, because peritoneal mesothelioma and ovarian cancer may be misclassified in the underlying cancer registries.
  • The projections extend past trends and do not account for the decline in asbestos consumption in China after 2012.
  • Long-term projections to 2050 may be systematically overestimated.
  • The projected DALY values carry considerable uncertainty.
  • The authors concluded that underdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of mesothelioma in China have led to an underestimate of the true attributable fraction.

Topics

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Ovarian Cancer, Asbestos Exposure.

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